Networking Drinks For Investors\Traders\Academics\Strategists\Economists FREE

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Monthly informal social & networking over drinks to share views on state of markets & economies, drivers and how we are positioned investment and trading wise over the next year. Depending on level of knowledge of participants - we may also touch on broader macroeconomic topics in British and American politics and and aggregate implications from policies for our jobs, cost of living & inequality.

Main objective will be to share our thoughts, hear contrarian views and most critically the underlying why) your favourite/most reliable signals/indicators/strategies and coming away with some potential investment ideas. But let's not forget this will be a social so we'll have some much needed fun & banter as well.

Some potential market impacting themes & latest hot global political & economic developments to ponder:

Government & central banks policy loosening and implications for global asset prices (stocks, currencies, crypto, commodities, bond yields, property) and outlook for inflation, employment & economic growth
Current valuations and bull market duration. The biggest "everything bubble" unwound in Q4 2021 with some tech stocks down -90% but now we are back at all time highs. Market timing is a fool's game but when are we gonna top? What's happened to that elusive US recession - were the soft landers right? What are the leading indicators you follow telling you?
As a Democratric US presidential candidate on the campaign trail once mocked the incumbent: "it's the economy stupid". Cost of living aside US GDP is stong - the useless 3000+ PhD economists there not only didn't see the inflation coming first time, will they miss it a second. Why did the Fed cut 0.5% instead of -0.25 if everything is hunky dory?
My proprietary macro indicators/model was forecasting earnings contraction driven by a global recession, tighter monetary policy & higher business costs (interesst rates) and although this has now reversed, stocks are way above fair value on almost all metrics (PE multiples), though I still see ponzinomics scam crypto intrinsic value as zero though given high volatility - good for swing trading! Japan is now even more fucked with their failed 30 year QE experiment delivering a 50 year low valueless Yen. If the Fed still keeps cutting than the Yen carry trade could see another sell off. Is a FX mean reversion trade worth a punt? With the Euro near dollar parity is the failed EU project likely to follow suit soon? Sterling looks vulnerable here too on a fundamental basis given headline inflation below target now unlike USA
Market Sentiment & Earnings. Spurred by recency bias, it seems many who never traded in a pre GFC regime have brought all the dips. But with interest rates now normalized - this is no longer the same post GFC economic regime. The high correlation between growth contraction & lower company earnings / misses / EPS revisions is still there, Fundamentals are now going to become much more important. Yes sentiment/investor psychology can matter short term but profitability ultimately drive prices, even extreme oversold signals on technicals can lose predictive power depending on market regime & levels of risk aversion.
UK October Budget and monetary policy lossening. I'm expecting the budget to be fiscally neutral else we will be back into recession, Labour are stupid but they can't be that stupid, surely? Spin doctors sticking "leaked" stories out there for media reaction - As Public Enemy once rapped: "Don't believe the hype"
Rates Policy and credibility reassertion. Mkts pricing in rates to drop but how can they with strong GDP else higher inflation will be back. Yes they might want to get back to neutural interests rates consistent with 2% price stability (NAIRU) but memories of the 70s is still fresh in Powell's head? For a lawyer, he's not that stupid - the best empirical evidence shows high inflation damages long term growth and makes the poor even poorer. An asset price mandate doesn't exist: Perma bulls should reap their own advice: Don't Fight the Fed, stop selling bonds (yields literally climbing as I write this)
Risks from geo political events including but not limited to ongoing Russian, Isreal, Iran conflicts, China - Taiwan, N Korea, larger middle east war - all of this could cripple the global economy, effect supply chains, drive up inflation and cause another global recession. Who knows - as Philosopher Socrates once graciously said "I know nothin". Join the club brethren