What we’re about
Welcome predictors, forecasters, rationalists, debators, futarchists, web3 enthusiast, bettors, DeFi users, blockchain tech-curious and traders.
This group is to foster discussions online and in person about making prediction markets real and sustainable.
True prediction markets aggregate and reveal information that was stuck with unknown individuals or hidden across the crowd, and are notoriously hard to run: In order book markets (or AMMs), liquidity providers suffer from adverse selection even if they are perfect forecasters when they aren't also the fastest.
Prediction markets so far thus relied on high fees (PredictIt) or unsustainable incentives (Polymarket) and mostly illiquid, or used play-money (Manifold).
The technology for fair and liquid markets on anything where truth counts and not speed, including for user generated questions, is available now for the first time (I'm working on this with my startup contro.tech).
Metaculus is a tool for forecasting that has a strong community, but isn't a prediction market. Do real-money prediction markets have wide product market fit beyond election betting?
Let's find out!