The world has become truly multipolar, or even non-polar. The West may have just lost its leading power. Russia keeps punching above its weight by brutalizing and threatening its neighbors, but few believe it has the tools to remain a major power in the medium-term. China will remain a world power to be reckoned with, everybody agrees. But can it keep accumulating power by buying influence and threatening its neighbors - all with no real allies and growing internal problems? Europe is...Europe, at least in terms of global leadership.
We will see if a new global hegemon can emerge - or wants to pay the price that entails. Maybe it would be better to have a non-managed world for a while. YMMV.
Which brings us to our topic. What does a "no one in charge" world imply for the rising middle-weight powers, like India, Brazil, South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Korea, and others? Some of them may have few obvious interests in common. Yet lately some have sought common cause on many global issues and even have talked about an informal alliance of the un-aligned. Notably, they all seem to share an interest in not being dominated by any great power in the future.
Do these recent maneuvers and cooperation add up to something more than the usual ebb and flow of diplomacy? Is a new non-aligned movement forming? (Or the first one, if you think the old Group of 77 movement failed to achieve much.)
Join the World Affairs Discussion Group on Sunday January 13th at 4pm to discuss the possible future of a world with a "non-aligned bloc." We can discuss questions like:
- Will it be formalized? Which nations might be in it?
- Who would "lead" it?
- What would it stand for and do?
- How would it handle differences among members and conflicting interests (a killer of all nascent alliances)?
- Can it endure, as non-aligned groups of countries have failed to do so many times in history?
- What might non-aligned II mean for the United States and its interests?
The week before our meeting, check back here for a few optional background readings. Feel free to add your own in comments.
